Saturday, February 12, 2011

What is probability?

I have only recently come across a series of eight linked articles by Hauke Riesch on the Understanding Uncertainty site, under the collective heading of What is Probability? They have been there since 2008.

It covers the questions which nag away at you over the years & provides a very readable account which should be of interest to all those who have to deal with probability, especially in their professional lives, but are not so clever with the maths. Those who never got far beyond the tossing of coins & the rolling of dice, & rather threw up their hands when it came to the pernickitiness of z-tests, t-tests & p-values.

The question of what precisely is probability ... is not philosophical in the colloquial sense of being of academic interest only. Unlike philosophy in many other areas, this question can have important consequences to … the very statements about the world that are permissible.