Thursday, February 05, 2009

Running scared

I have only recently become aware of the Scared anti-smoking campaign through hearing the audio version on local radio

A young girl, sounding no older than about 7, tells us how she is scared that Mummy might die, because she smokes cigarettes. A voiceover tells us that over 2000 people a week die in this country from a smoking related disease

Well perhaps all is fair in love & war & ends justify means etc etc even though we usually disapprove of advertisers who use the power of pester power

But at that age, (leaving aside the question of how far, if at all, a child has discussed, understood the idea that everybody dies one day), being afraid that Mummy will die means being afraid that she will die soon – next year is a long time away

In fact I know of at least one grown up man, who was among the first generation to be subjected to serious anti-smoking education at school, who used to have precisely this fear. If anything, once he realised that Mum would live, in all probability, a bit longer than that, he grew cynical about the whole anti-smoking campaign

But I think it immoral to scare children this way – for scared they will be

My other problem with this ad is the tag line, when a concerned lady tells us that in the UK over 2000 people die each week from a smoking related disease

Well, using the figures for England & Wales, a total of 10,000 people die each week. About 5000 of them are women, but only about 400 of them are aged between 20 & 60 – a generous definition of all those who might be currently Mummy to a small girl. About 100 of these deaths will be due to breast cancer or ‘external cause’ (basically, accidents)

I do not know how many of the remaining 300 might be classified as smoking related, and any way any death is a tragedy for the bereaved, but if I were in any way professionally responsible for the figures as a statistician I would make plain my unhappiness at the clearly implied link between the risk to Mummy & the 2000 figure

Do we not believe that the public needs to be educated in the better understanding of risk?