Saturday, February 14, 2009

Babies & bathwater

Before we all get too carried away with the idea that statistical theories & mathematical economics cannot deal with (or answer to) the way real people (rather than the mythical Rational Man) behave in the real world, let us remember that statistics can/should capture the inherent variability & allow us to use it to good effect

They are very hard ideas to get to grips with

The renewed resistance to the dark arts reminds me of the consternation & protestations expressed by some in the C19th who objected to the cold, scientific & statistical studies of Quetelet, the replacement of the Common Man by the Average Man.

Man did not behave according to statistical laws – he had free will

How then could those two supreme examples of acts freely entered into of ones own free will - the decision to end one’s own life or to marry – show such temporal & spatial regularity when expressed as rates – so many per 1000 population?

On the other side however, the similar expression of death and, particularly, infrctious disease as rates played a role in helping the middle classes to appreciate that these ills can afflict us all – not just the poor, dirty & feckless, so that they appreciated the benefit to all of cleaning up the slums & investing in public health initiatives such as sewers & clean water


Link