My statistical look at what I might die of could be criticised from at least two points of view
First it took no account of my personal or family medical history, nor of the fact that I am a smoker
I doubt I could find any reliable population data to apply to a woman of my age, & given that heart, stroke or cancer are the most likely killers for all of us there would not seem to be too much to be gained from the effort of estimation
Family history suggests a long life, especially on the female side. But we all well know that smoking shortens life, so I do not count on getting the average
The second criticism applies to all statistical forecasting: it assumes that the future will exhibit the same patterns as the past
I used data for all deaths in 2005 taken from the national registration service. The older group which I looked at – women over 85 – would all have been born before 1920
They benefited from the already rapidly declining mortality of early life – even at the end of the 19th century ¼ of children born did not survive to the age of 5 (though most of those deaths took place at or very soon after birth). Still they would have experienced a wide range of childhood infections. And yet most would have had to wait until they were at least 40 before they had any antibiotics
They would have lived through, or been born just after World War I and many would have served themselves in the forces during WWII. They survived the Depression of the 1930s
Most would have left school at 14, though for a lucky few higher education was becoming more accepted
Many of the oldest among them would have lost fiancés or potential husbands during WWI.
They would have experienced later menarche & earlier menopause.
Few would have had very large families.
It is highly unlikely that any, even amongst the youngest of their generation, ever used the Pill for contraception – especially not before their first child was born.
Many more than in my generation would have known what it was like to lose a child to death, if not in childhood then in war
But many would have seen their child be the first in the family to go to university, or even just to sit any kind of public examination
They would have eaten a diet rich in animal fat – olive oil came from the chemists & was used mostly to ameliorate earache
They would have been the first group of women for whom it was socially acceptable to smoke - though never on the street
Those who contracted breast or cervical cancer at an early age almost certainly died young
A few might have had HRT
The ones whose deaths I was looking at with a statistical eye, looking for clues, were the survivors of all that
Perhaps not so relevant a guide to what will happen to my generation after all
