They ignore the real world where human behaviour modifies pure probability based on the casting of dice or tossing of coins
We are all Keynsians again now
Keynes, in his public life, was a very practical economist. But his early interest was in probability theory, & he published his Treatise on Probability in 1921
It may be worth revisiting. I have a copy on the bookshelf at home. I bought it second hand off a stall near Westminster Hospital a long time ago*. Perhaps I should get round finally to reading it
* The same stall where, on a different occasion, I bought a copy of Recent Economic Changes. Come to think of it, the stall was just south of the entrance to Smith Square, in those days home to the headquarters of both Labour & Conservatives, which may explain the kind of titles on offer
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