Mightmare

I had a nightmare the other night.

I had somehow been co-opted on to one, or possibly more than one (there is a plethora to choose from), of these independent enquiries/investigations into possible/alleged past wrongdoings

It all got very surreal & I ended up trying to run away.

Perhaps because of the prospect of being sued if we got things wrong, blamed the wrong person, failed adequately to take account of today’s expectations.

‘Pension funds & other private infrastructure investors could sue the Department for Transport if official forecasts for long term traffic growth fail to materialise’ according to a report in The Times on October 8.

The dispute is about whether the fall in average number of miles per driver, which began in the late 90s, will continue, whether we have now passed the point of ’peak car’, or whether the century-long growth in traffic will resume once this recession is over.

My solution: Go back to making our forecasts by examining the entrails of chickens, rather than pretending that mathematical models & computers can draw back the veil which shrouds the future.

Or play a game of chicken with potential investors – they make their own forecasts, & when the future arrives the one who was closest to the truth wins the prize of a big fat bonus profit.

Or utilise the wisdom of crowds & the law of large numbers & ask every citizen to make their own guess of car mileage in 2035. Then just take the mean.

One thing is for sure: as a public sector forecaster in a world of private investors, always err on the low side: traffic congestion means that their money is safe; those who will lose constitute too large & heterogeneous a group to mount a legal claim.

Who, in truth, do we wish to entrust to have visions of the future we wish for ourselves, who & how should it be paid for?

Link
Times reports that DfT could be sued about road traffic growth forecasts that are too high
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