Throwing caution to the ash-blowing winds

According to a report in Monday’s Times there will, by the end of this month, be new rules for flying in the vicinity of volcanic ash. Essentially pilots will be left to decide for themselves where it is safe to go, having heed to the Met Office forecasts, the type of plane they are flying & presumably new information about the tolerance to dust of their engines.

And so in barely 3 months we have been able to move from a super-precautionary approach (AVOID!) to one in which we prefer to rely on the judgement of individual experts in each case. We have learned that the precautionary approach is not the same as one which is risk free, for we have heard of, or have experienced ourselves, all the problems, ranging from inconvenient to life changing, of a disruption to air travel. We have also learned that, contrary to the assertions of some of the more noisy campaigners, although some flying may be the indulgence of rich pampered populations, it is also vital to our whole way of life.

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Keep going despite the campaign

A victim of the volcano

According to the analysis by James Bone in yesterday’s Times General McChrystal is a victim of Eyjafjallajökull. A simple 2 day access agreement turned into a boozy night in a Paris bar & a boozy bus trip to Berlin as the European air space was closed.

So just an unlucky break for heroic leader? More Icelandic revenge?

More like an occasion for the reason, when you read all the background to the climax.

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We have been warned

A warning - Iceland Meteorological office - Earthquakes Mýrdalsjökull, Iceland

And a helpful tip - Mýrdalsjökull pronunciation: How to pronounce Mýrdalsjökull

A backward movement

The day before the aircraft were grounded again this week the cloud cover was heavy, though with more than enough blue to make a sailor a pair of trousers.

The clouds were moving very, very slowly in a generally southern direction & I was watching the process of docking as I stood at the bus stop. To my surprise I saw one cloud actually reverse direction & start to move back north as it was being pulled into the much larger one coming from behind.

Helps you understand how difficult it must be to forecast the behaviour of these clouds of volcano dust & ashes

Reason to be grateful

“Without dust there would be no clouds or rain — instead, everything would be soaking wet with moisture. Our dresses would become wet and dripping, and umbrellas useless.”

I just came across that line from C19th meteorologist John Aitken, quoted by Paul Simons & copied by me into my commonplace book last year.

So a reason to be grateful to the volcano.

Speaking of which, RTE1 sought a lesson in pronunciation from an Icelander live on air. She very helpfully explained that it helps to break it down into three parts which translate as island, mountain, volcano. So it makes perfect sense to refer to it just as The Volcano – we talk all the time about The Hill for example, if it is a familiar one.

And we are all now beginning to see the funny side. Peter Brookes did a great cartoon in The Times - Eyjafjalljokameron. And Cicero's Songs has the Best Volcano joke so far

Links
Weather eye: What caused the fogs in Victorian cities? - Times Online
Feline ambulation and volcanic nomenclature

Voting & the volcano

Chris Mullin, after commenting in his diary on the apathy of the electorate during the 2001 election campaign, went on to speculate about what it might take to arrest this freefall. He guessed that “the rot will continue until we are blasted out of our indolence by … an environmental catastrophe (but only one that affects us directly – someone else’s catastrophe won’t make any difference)”

How very prescient though I don’t know if he had a volcanic eruption in mind, & he did not foresee the X Factor effect of the tv debates.

A divide has certainly opened up between those who saw the grounding of flights as a cause of tragedy & loss, for complaint & whingeing, a demonstration of official incompetence, & those who saw it as an adventure, or challenge, an opportunity to be a part of history, to use their own initiative rather than be hampered by procedures & form filling, waiting for government or some other THEM to come to the rescue. This has been very instructive, though whether it will be translated into voting remains to be seen.

Of course lessons need to be learned, but instead of carping why not be grateful that the experts had been thinking about all this, making contingency plans in advance. IATA, the International Federation of Air Line Pilots' Associations, and the International Council of Aircraft Owner and Pilot Associations all participate in this work of the International Civil Aviation Organisation which set up those Volcanic Ash Contingency Plans & gave the responsibility to the London Met Office. OK so their model could be, has been improved as a result of the unprecedented experience we now have, but just imagine what it must have been like for those who were having to decide what to do while it was all happening - & be grateful that we did not just learn about it by having a plane full of Easter holiday makers drop suddenly out of the sky.

Nobody who spoke of knowing how to cope with flying through ash has had to do it in the crowded skies of western Europe. One pilot explained that standard procedure on finding oneself in such a cloud is to do an immediate 180° turn & descend; that may be fine over the Pacific, but over London or Paris? It does not bear thinking about.

Meanwhile one of the most interesting & constructive suggestions to come out of this was contained in a letter to the editor of The Times:

Sir, As a child I used a footpath that was closed once a year to establish that the use was a privilege, not a right. Perhaps we should close the skies once a year.
John Chambers Tadworth, Surrey

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Speaking for one's country

Olafur Grimsson, president of Iceland, has been giving pretty freely of his time for radio interviews – I heard him on RTE1 on Sunday & on Radio 5 Live this morning. He is impressive – accepted gracefully Iceland’s mistakes leading up to the credit crunch, found the right formula to say that while he is sorry (without being in any way accountable for) an Icelandic volcano causing disruption to so many peoples plans, he is pleased that no one has been killed or hurt. And got in a nice wry joke about how the volcano did not pay attention to the bit in Genesis where it says God finished the job of creating the universe after 6 days.

And, just to add to all his other plus points, he is a graduate of Manchester university.

Rattling the cage

Elections these days consist of a tiny elite of political leaders racing around the country in battle buses pursued by an equally tiny elite of commentators, while the rest of us (candidates, party members & general public alike) are mere spectators, occasionally roped in as extras.

So goes the entry in Chris Mullins diary for June 2001.

Still, at least young Nicholas has rattled their cage good & proper this time.

And the elite corps of commentators must be feeling miffed that they are not getting their rightful lead in the news bulletins, knocked out by an unpronounceable volcano.

I think I am beginning to enjoy this election after all.

But am I alone in feeling insulted by being characterised, or wooed, as the Great Ignored? I think I know what they mean, they want to reassure us that they do love us, really (& there has been too much of this human rights for criminlas business); but it just sounds like that dismissive thing people say: Oh ignore her – she’s mad.

Journalists do not have to be chasing after the political leaders to demonstrate their superiority, their proximity to power. The geat panjandrums of Today are honouring us with their presence, with the likes of James Naughtie off to present the programme from Newcastle, like some visiting colonial potentate.

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Abstract politics

Bumpy flight

On 10 April The Times reported that the 270 workers at Gloucestershire Airport, Dowty Propellers were working at full tilt as demand for planes with turboprop engines has been rising.

I wonder if they can expand to produce even more even faster? Since they fly lower than jet planes they might be an answer to volcano dust.

Not sure I should want to go through that again though. They were still pretty common in the 1960s & 70s & I have done my share of time in a DC3, Twin Otter or Cessna.

The main reason for flying higher, or so I was always told, is that fuel consumption is less, at least if the flight is long enough to offset the extra fuel needed for a jet to take off. And of course the other big disadvantage of flying as low as a turbo prop is that it can get VERY bumpy. It is now long enough ago for me to look back with fondness to a complex journey we ended up doing from New York, New York via Syracuse, Buffalo & Albany to Montreal during some heavy wintry weather. On one of the legs the young GI sitting behind us took delight in saying at intervals: I’ve never known a plane shake this much.

Another question about the effects of the flying ban: How is David Cameron getting around the campaign trail?

I have not heard anything about helicopters being used to get people around during the crisis – are they grounded too? We don’t see many round here – and if we do it is usually the air ambulance or police. I believe private pilots prefer to stay away from the hills.

Which reminds me of another story: a local woman answered a knock at her door one evening to find a very apologetic Noel Edmonds; he had landed his helicopter in the field at the back of her house as the lesser of two evils because the clouds had unexpectedly closed in.

Link
Britain's propeller industry takes off again - Times Online

Keep going despite the campaign

The British broadcasters got themselves all in a tizz about last night’s tv debate – I really worry about how they think they are such an important part of the process, imagining themselves as stars of the Downing Street West Wing. Fewer than 10 m people watched – quite a big audience these days, but it means there were 50 million who had better things to do.

Of course the print media have caught the bug too – goodness knows how many pages in The Times today.

I have not heard or overheard one mention on the bus or in the shops. But everybody is talking about The Volcano – including the children, who have heard that it is going to be raining (or snowing) dust. They really are living through interesting times with this year’s weather.

I have been taking refuge from the incessant election coverage in RTE1, where I heard a really useful discussion about the volcano. We learned that there is in fact a VOLCANIC ASH CONTINGENCY PLAN with nine Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres around the world.

The politicians have no doubt been all tied up with campaigning, although someone still has to take care of the business of government of the country. No doubt in normal times we would by now have had the benefit of a statement from Gordon about how to keep calm & carry on & Lord Adonis would have been all over the airwaves. I am not sure what the rules are on ministerial media appearances on government business during an election period, but given New Labour’s record on administrative disasters I think we should be thankful that this one is being left to the experts.

The Irish are just as badly affected as we are, at least until this morning when some flights to the west, away from Europe have been resumed. But the attitude seems completely different – they are at the mercy of Nature in this one & the stories are all about how people are coping. Dublin airport opened up free wi fi so that passengers could do their own rebooking rather than add to the pressure on ticketing desks. A businessman, with a vested interest in & relishing the opportunity to point out that, contrary to recent received wisdom, travel agents not having been superseded by the internet had been able to prove their continuing worth; he told stories of problem solving. We also heard of the husband getting home from the Ukraine via Paris, Cherbourg & Rosslaire.

Switching over to BBC Radio 5 Live at noon we just heard whingeing about a lost golfing holiday & close questioning about how to claim off your insurance; this morning's Today programme did at least end with a listener's e-mail about the forgotten pleasure of a west London garden on a suny spring morning untroubled by the noise of aircraft taking off & landing. (I wonder what will be the long-lasting effects of this incident on the debate over the future of Heathrow?). Otherwise, on a bad day these days I think that for the British media 'the story' is an uninterrupted tale of drunken broken Britain where no disaster is mitigated & the peak achievement of any interviewer's career is the one where he made his object cry.

One last thought – with no politician to decide, I wonder what will happen if the experts think it best to relax some of the more long-winded security requirements to get the system moving again with all the planes repositioned ASAP, not sitting around on runways while passengers take their shoes off & put them back on again.

Links

VOLCANIC ASH CONTINGENCY PLAN
BoM-Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre

Welcome to UK Resilience

Eyjafjallajökull

Well Paul Simons did warn us. Many people may still not realise that that is what is happening to them today, because nobody on the radio dares say the word. Through primitive atavistic fear, the sort of superstition which forbids the naming of The Scottish Play? No, a simple but total inability to pronounce the name.

Eyjafjallajökull.

The grounding of all flights to & from UK airspace will have all kinds of consequences, good, bad, maybe happy, for the lives of thousands of people whose plans have been so unexpectedly disrupted. And we are getting a very good illustration of how modern communications have transformed the reaction to such events. One reporter found an almost deserted regional airport – people were not turning up unaware of what had happened & forming angry queues. They have not had to rely on harassed airline staff for information about what is going on. Radio 5 even took a call from a man in Shanghai airport; his flight back to London had been cancelled, he needed to get back to be with is wife who is going into hospital. Radio 5 was providing him, via his laptop, with continuous updates; his office back in London had been able to book him on a flight later today from Hong Kong, which, with any luck will land him in London early tomorrow morning. Even 10 years ago he might still have been stranded with no clear idea at all of what was going on, with no way of judging what might be his best course of action.

Monday was a golden day – literally – a trick of the light shining down through a high haze. I even noticed for the first time ever a group of irregular-shaped fields high on one of the hills which fit together as an almost perfect pentagon – this showed up because they are all planted with some find of grain which under that light showed up pale yellow amidst the surrounding green. I must search out some learned treatise on the field patterns of the ancient Peak District, there must be such a thing, maybe written by some C18th or C19th antiquary.

We may get some spectacular sunsets over the next few days or weeks because of all this volcanic dust in the air. But I fear summer may be cancelled.

Links
Iceland volcano: Why a cloud of ash has grounded flights

How Captain Eric Moody's brush with volcanic ash became aircraft lore

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The weather & Gordon Brown

So here’s my latest electoral theory.

Although the sun has been teasing us a bit lately, with promises of spring, the weather just keeps turning miserable again. It is getting everybody down. But there’s nothing we can do about it, we just have to keep plodding along, doing the best we can, hoping things do not get any worse. Gordon Brown provides the perfect match for this.

It is nothing like the spring of 1997 – a real time for optimism. Then Sunny Dave might stand more of a chance, hope for better things from a change.

I can stretch this analogy further. We have lost a lot of our faith in politicians; we have stopped listening to them.

We have also become less convinced by confident assertions about the inevitability of global warming, helped in no little way by the unreliability of the Met Office’s seasonal forecasts of barbecue summers & mild winters.

At the weekend a young local tree surgeon confirmed my feeling that the daily & weekly forecasts have also become less reliable of late. I personally have given up trying to catch the last local weather forecast of the day, just after the 9pm news, & wait instead for the revised version next morning before deciding what to wear.

The young tree surgeon has the Met Office weather forecast as his home page to help him plan his work – but says that it has caused him so much waste of time recently that he is considering taking it off & just relying on his own reading of the prospects for wind & rain.

It would be interesting to see if the formal assessment of the forecasts accuracy confirms this impression; we have certainly heard a lot about the unpredictable & unusual behaviour of the jet stream. And just to add to the gloom, Paul Simons informed us that an Icelandic volcano, Eyjafjallajökull, erupted for only the fourth time in 1,000 years Saturday before last & that “The effects on the UK [weather] could be severe.”

Icelandic revenge, perhaps, for having the anti-terrorism act used against them. Trouble is, if there is anything in my theory, rather than getting rid of Gordon the result will be an even more lethargic decision to stick with the government we know.

Links
Weather eye: Dormant volcano erupts in Iceland - Times Online

Customized tours to experience Eyjafjallajokull volcanic eruption

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Quiet flight

How nice to have a good news story to inspire us. Not that it was good that a plane came down in the Hudson river, but the skill of its splendidly named pilot Chesley Sullenberger III and the survival of all on board, the speed of the rescue from the icy conditions – what more heroism could we need to remind us that life is never all bad

Then I heard that it was an Airbus. Goodness, that took me back

It was my first trip to Indonesia & I was on an internal flight from Jakarta to Bali. The plane was not very full & most of the passengers seemed to be local men. Smoking was still allowed on planes, but this airline was one of the few which permitted the smoking of kretek. The cloves which they contain produce a powerful aroma but also tend to produce minute explosions of sparks

There was nobody sitting next to me, nor in the seats across the aisle. I settled back, lost in reverie inspired by the clouds, the like of which I had never seen before. I put firmly to the back of my mind the memory of a British Airways plane which not too long before had experienced a sudden drop of 10,000 feet due to some freak atmospheric conditions somewhere over Indonesia

It was my first trip on an Airbus too. The plane I was on was obviously very new. I was very impressed by its lightness in the air, so very different from the feel of a Boeing

Suddenly I thought: It’s very quiet

I listened very hard. There was definitely no noise from the engines. No vibration either

I gave myself a good talking to. Of course the engines were working. We were descending. Now I could see the sea below, dotted with small islands. The water looked very shallow from up here

Then I became aware of a kind of whispering twittering noise coming from the seats behind. I peered round to look. The other passengers were obviously looking at something with a slight degree of alarm. A kind of white mist was coming out of the ventilators – not very thick, not enough to fill up the cabin

Crikey. The engines must really have stopped. We were just gliding

Funnily enough I felt complete confidence in the pilots’ ability to get us down. We might even be able to make it to the airport, which could not be too far away now. But even if we did not, at least the water would be warm

Hope the water is not as shallow as it looks. It will probably be a hell of a bump when we hit it

Of course my heroics were completely unnecessary. The Airbus really was just an exceedingly quiet plane & the white mist just the sort of thing that you get with brand new systems

The landing was entirely uneventful

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