The illusion of Linda

That people give the wrong answer to the question of Linda may, rather than revealing their lack of understanding of probability theory, be just another example of the power of suggestion & misdirection.

The question has much in common with that old chestnut:

How do you spell the white of an egg? Is it Y-O-K-E or Y-O-L-K?

Has anybody, I wonder, conducted randomised trials, with the subjects randomised to have the alternatives presented to them in slightly different ways.

1 A Linda is a bank clerk & an active feminist
B Linda is a bank clerk

2 A Linda is an active feminist
B Linda is an active feminist & a bank clerk

Or as originally formulated, that is

A Linda is a bank clerk
B Linda is a bank clerk & an active feminist

but with the questioner a schoolchild (or a blonde bimbo, or a little old lady) – that is not someone with the authority of an academic & the power of a teacher.

Perhaps Derren Brown could predict the outcome of such experiments.

Link
Derren Brown

Related posts
Not-so-simply connecting

Telling stories & statistics

Talking about Linda