That’s a city the size of Manchester!
I haven’t seen much fuss about that, though Mark Easton led with it on his BBC blog.
To put it another way, given a population of 56.1 million, that means that the statisticians had an accuracy rate of more than 99%.
By coincidence, if my memory is correct, the same size of error was revealed by the 1971 Census. I cannot now recall what the reasons were said to be, but I think it cast further doubt on the reliability of the 10% sample census which had been taken in 1966; migration was also no doubt partly to blame, & not just from outside the UK – with no border controls, measuring the numbers moving from Scotland & Ireland was especially problematic.
It also led to calls for a full Census to be held in 1976 – obviously ten years was far too long to wait for reliable figures in a fast-changing world. Plans were made, but fell victim to Denis Healey’s cuts in public expenditure during the IMF crisis of that year.
The Times, no less, have greeted the 2011 results with a First Leader which spoke of ‘The beauty of the census’, so there is hope that this more-than-200-year-old tradition will continue in 2021 after all. The much criticised cost, of approaching £500 million, is after all less than twice the fine paid by Barclays for attempting to manipulate a different set of figures.
Some will use the Census resuls to argue that our population is too high for our over-crowded islands. I rather enjoyed checking my memory of the Ross Population Panel Report of 1973 (a UK response, in part, to the Club of Rome’s Limits to Growth) which took a relatively sanguine attitude to the prospect of a Great Britain population of 66.1 million in 2011 – only a couple of million higher than it has actually turned out to be (once you add in the figure for Scotland).
But those were ‘natural increase’ projections which made no allowance at all for future migration, which was considered far too unpredictable over such a long period of time; the experts thought that the British could grow the population to the size it is today entirely by their own efforts at procreation together with a modest increase in longevity.
In trying to find some confirmation on the web of my recollection of the 1971 Census results I came across this wonderful Public Service film, made to let the people know (in a mere 137 words) of the vital importance of the need for facts.
1971 Census Film: Transcript:
Voice over: From time to time through history, the greatest need has been for facts: facts to know where to build new schools, new houses, hospitals, factories, roads. We need facts to help fight sickness and disease . and that is why on April 25 we are asking you to fill in the 1971 census. An army of men and women with light blue satchels will deliver and collect them from every household in Britain .with NO exceptions.
The form is secret. There is nothing to fear from completing it. When its contents have been analysed, it will be locked away for a hundred years under guard . and all these officials are pledged to secrecy. Identify them by the blue satchel. It's the big form with the big job to do. We need the facts . from YOU.
Links
National Archive: 1971 Census film
Explaining the Difference between the 2011 Census. Estimates and the Rolled-Forward Population Estimates
Mark Easton: England and Wales population up
Related posts
Well I never!
Who do you think you are: Francis Maude
Immigration statistics & the Eton question
GB population
