Thursday, January 10, 2008

Three cups of coffee a day

I well remember the very first lecture I attended in economic statistics. By that lovely man, RGD Allen, whose main point was the vital importance of reading the definitions & explanatory notes before plunging into an anlysis of figures which might not actually represent what you think they do

Good advice for everybody. Not least in assessing contradictory findings about whether X, Y Z are good for you or not

You do not need to be in any position to judge whether the scientific or statistical methods employed were appropriate. Scientists (& the journalists who report these stories) have a very Humpty Dumpty approach to language, so just ask What exactly do they mean by that?

One recent example sticks in my mind, if only because it seemed to catch the imagination of several Times columnists who all referred to it in the ensuing weeks

Three cups of coffee a day can increase your risk of heart problems

What do they mean by 3?
What do they mean by cup?
What do they mean by coffee?
What do they mean by a day?

I feel pretty sure that the mug of instant you grab on the run while trying to get everybody out of the house in the morning has a different effect from the cappuccino you share with a friend & a blueberry muffin later in the day. Which has a different effect from the small cup of Turkish coffee you have in the evening after a really relaxed elbows-on-the-table supper with friends

Is it the metronomic regularity of 3 per day which matters, or the average over a life time?

Or what

And finally, how many people did they study, & how did they select them? Is there any reason to think that results which apply to them will apply to you in exactly the same way?


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