Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Feeling comfortable

Despite the two great freezes that we have experienced this year we are still, I think, expecting this to be the warmest year on record when the whole of the planet is taken into account.

That seems rather like the old joke – if you put one hand into a bowl of boiling water & the other into a bucket of ice, then on average your hands will be very comfortable.

More seriously though, how does one calculate an average global temperature – even if we assume some perfect, continuous universal measuring system covering the whole of the earth’s surface & as high into the atmosphere as we need to go.

And what difference(s) do different methods make, especially in any time series analysis?

Is it indeed the average which matters, or some measure of variation.

There are just so many questions, unknowns & unpredictables that scientists & climate change evangelists alone cannot be left to tell us what to do & we just have to rely on the messy & unpredictable processes of international politics.