Tuesday, July 01, 2008

Statistically speaking

I am 5 feet 4 inches tall, Derbyshire born & have 20.7 more years to live

In real life I am 5 feet 10 inches, Manchester born, & who knows?

Two points:

Statistics are not real information

Statistics apply to populations, not individuals



They are nevertheless wondrous, beautiful things

They give you absolutely the best guess you can make in the absence of real information

They allow you to discern patterns & relationships to inform your judgements & decisions about how the world works & what you might do to improve it

They can show you patterns of woodland development where before you could see only trees


Applied unthinkingly, especially in decisions about the medical treatment of individuals, they may do more harm than good



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