I dug out something from the Population Panel report of 1973. One point I had forgotten was that their projections were natural increase models only. That is to say, they took no account of migration into or out of the country, because birth rates were the main cause of concern.
For Great Britain they reckoned that the population would lie somewhere between 59 million & 67 million in 2001. The figures for 2011 were 61 million & 74 million.
The recently published estimates show a (GB) population of 59 million in 2006 rising to 61 million in 2011 and 69 million in 2031. So the figures which are causing so much excitement for 25 years hence are below those which were accepted with (relative) equanimity for today
Just to show how treacherous the forecasting business can be I offer the following quote:
Over the next 15 years the number of women of younger childbearing age in the population, those aged 15-30 years, will increase by about 12%. These women have already been born & very few of them are likely to die before age 30, by which time, if present habits continue, they will have had most of their children
If you were born between about 1940 to 1955 they were talking about you!
For Great Britain they reckoned that the population would lie somewhere between 59 million & 67 million in 2001. The figures for 2011 were 61 million & 74 million.
The recently published estimates show a (GB) population of 59 million in 2006 rising to 61 million in 2011 and 69 million in 2031. So the figures which are causing so much excitement for 25 years hence are below those which were accepted with (relative) equanimity for today
Just to show how treacherous the forecasting business can be I offer the following quote:
Over the next 15 years the number of women of younger childbearing age in the population, those aged 15-30 years, will increase by about 12%. These women have already been born & very few of them are likely to die before age 30, by which time, if present habits continue, they will have had most of their children
If you were born between about 1940 to 1955 they were talking about you!
